 A youth bulge results in a large reservoir of potential recruits to radical organizations. (AP/Nasser Shiyoukhi) |
Societies with high birthrates are prone to conflict, demographers find. That is especially true when there are a disproportionate number of young men between the ages of fifteen and thirty (NYT). The reasons are multifold: This “youth bulge” results in a large reservoir of potential recruits to radical organizations. It helps explain the surge in Taliban recruitment in South Asia, the presence of militant groups like MEND in the Niger Delta, the ongoing tensions in the Palestinian territories, and criminal and political gang recruitment. Between 1970 and 1999, 80 percent of the world’s civil conflicts occurred in countries where 60 percent or more of the population was under the age of thirty, according to a new report by Population Action International. Countries most prone to youth-bulge-related unrest are in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Africa, where child soldiers are prevalent.
Battle of the Youth Bulge
By Addison Wiggin, Daily Reckoning
03/21/10
How certain large populations of idle young men will likely change the world… for the worse“Between 1970 and 1999, 80% of civil conflicts occurred in countries where 60% of the population or more were under the age of thirty… Today there are sixty-seven counties with youth bulges, of which sixty of them are experiencing social unrest and violence.” – Council on Foreign Relations
A surge in youth population leads most nations in one of two directions: Economic boom or social bust. While much of the world is currently focused on the aging populations of powerhouse nations like the US and Japan, certain regions of the world are growing startlingly younger. Social scientists call these phenomena “youth bulges.” By necessity, they take time to play out. But even in these early stages, it’s easy to see what’s coming…and a lot of it is pretty unsettling.
Yemen has captured American attention just a few times in the last decade. The assailants of the USS Cole were from there, and the infamous “underwear bomber” – who was trained in Yemen – tried to spoil Christmas Day 2009. In both cases, we as a nation spent the proceeding weeks tripping over ourselves…searching for answers as to how this came to be, who to blame, and how to stop it from happening again.
But, as usual, few ask “why?” That’s a more stinging question, of course. One of the few easy answers is this: Yemen is overflowing with disaffected kids. An amazing 46% of the Yemeni population is under 16 years old. That’s the highest youth ratio for any nation in the world outside of Africa. By comparison, only 20% of Americans occupy this demographic.
