EcoCollapse ArmAGideon: The Five Stages of Collapse

The Five Stages of Collapse

Friday, February 22, 2008
Club Orlov

Elizabeth Kübler-Ross defined the five stages of coming to terms with grief and tragedy as denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance, and applied it quite successfully to various forms of catastrophic personal loss, such as death of a loved one, sudden end to one's career, and so forth.

Several thinkers, notably James Howard Kunstler and, more recently John Michael Greer, have pointed out that the Kübler-Ross model is also quite terrifyingly accurate in reflecting the process by which society as a whole (or at least the informed and thinking parts of it) is reconciling itself to the inevitability of a discontinuous future, with our institutions and life support systems undermined by a combination of resource depletion, catastrophic climate change, and political impotence. But so far, little has been said specifically about the finer structure of these discontinuities. Instead, there is to be found a continuum of subjective judgments, ranging from "a severe and prolonged recession" (the prediction we most often read in the financial press), to Kunstler's "Long Emergency," to the ever-popular "Collapse of Western Civilization," painted with an ever-wider brush-stroke.

Dmitry Orlov: Peak Oil Lessons From The Soviet Union (29:06): Dmitry Orlov, engineer and author, warns that the US's reliance on diminishing fuel supplies might be sending it down the same path the Soviet Union took before it collapsed.

For those of us who have already gone through all of the emotional stages of reconciling ourselves to the prospect of social and economic upheaval, it might be helpful to have a more precise terminology that goes beyond such emotionally charged phrases. Defining a taxonomy of collapses might prove to be more than just an intellectual exercise: based on our abilities and circumstances, some of us may be able to specifically plan for a certain stage of collapse as a temporary, or even permanent, stopping point. Even if society at the current stage of socioeconomic complexity will no longer be possible, and even if, as Tainter points in his "Collapse of Complex Societies," there are circumstances in which collapse happens to be the correct adaptive response, it need not automatically cause a population crash, with the survivors disbanding into solitary, feral humans dispersed in the wilderness and subsisting miserably. Collapse can be conceived of as an orderly, organized retreat rather than a rout.

ArmAGideon: The CIA Accurately Predicted How Long World Oil Supplies Would Last—in 1978

The CIA Accurately Predicted How Long World Oil Supplies Would Last—in 1978

by William Hicks
Bill Hicks is Dead, via Energy Bulletin

Perhaps I am atypical, but I’ve always been hypersensitive to what’s going on around me in the real world. Among my earliest childhood memories are the gas lines that followed the 1973 Arab oil embargo; the event which probably planted the seed that sprouted into awareness of peak oil during my fifth decade on this planet. Despite being just a kid at the time, I was keenly aware that my family’s cars needed that gasoline that was being rationed, and we furthermore needed those cars to do just about everything that was important--from my dad getting to work in the morning, to me getting to school, to my mom going grocery shopping every weekend.

My heightened awareness is likely also the reason why I still have vivid memories of a headline that appeared in our local small town newspaper one day several years after those gas lines had abated. The headline read in stark simplicity: “60 to 90 Years' Supply of Oil Left,” and it really grabbed this thirteen-year-old’s attention. Being a thoughtful youth, I did a quick mental calculation and realized that if the headline was accurate it meant if I was lucky there was a chance I would not live to see the end of the oil age.

Flash forward to middle age, and while researching this article I unearthed a reference to what it was that generated that headline from so many years ago. According to a Time magazine story published in October 1978, the source of that “60 to 90 year” figure was an official report produced for the Central Intelligence Agency by Richard Nehring, a policy analyst for the Rand Corporation. The Time article, entitled “Oil: What’s Left Out There?” centered on two basic questions: “How much oil does the world have left?” and “When will it run out?”

Is Your S.S Peak-Oil-Titanic Reality: The Broken-Beliefs-Bar; or Ready-to-Launch-Lifeboat?

[Peak Oil] [EcoCollapse: ArmAGideon]

Imagine, then, that you’re on the proverbial ocean liner at sea, and it’s just hit the proverbial iceberg. Water is rising belowdecks and the deck is beginning to tilt, but nobody has drowned yet. Aware of the danger, you strap on a life preserver and head for the lifeboats. As you leave your stateroom, though, the guy in the stateroom next to yours gives you an incredulous look. "Are you nuts?" he says. "If you leave the ship now, somebody else will just take your cabin, and get all the meals and drinks you’ve paid for!"

Your fellow passenger in the metaphor, like Kay and Monbiot in the real world, has failed to notice a crucial fact about what’s happening: when a situation is unsustainable in the near term, the benefits that might be gained by clinging to it very often come with a prodigious cost, and the costs that have to be paid to abandon it very often come with considerable benefits. It’s far more pleasant to walk down to the cruise ship’s bar, order a couple of dry martinis, and sit there listening to the Muzak, to be sure, than it is to scramble into a lifeboat and huddle there on one of the thwarts as the waves toss you around, the spray soaks you, and the wind chills you to the bone. Two hours later, however, the passenger who went to the bar is a pallid corpse being gently nibbled by fishes, and the passenger who climbed into the lifeboat and put up with the seasickness and the spray is being hauled safely aboard the first freighter that happened to be close enough to answer the distress call.

[..] Now of course the concept of using less of anything is about as popular in contemporary America as garlic aioli at a convention of vampires. Nobody wants to be reminded that using less, so that our grandchildren would have enough, was the road we didn’t take at the end of the Seventies. Still, the road we did take was always destined to be a dead end, and as we move deeper into the first half of the twenty-first century, the end of that road is starting to come into sight. At this point, we’re faced with the prospect of using less energy, not because we choose to do so but because the energy that would be needed to do otherwise isn’t there any more. That’s the problem with living as though there’s no tomorrow, of course: tomorrow inevitably shows up anyway. This late in the game, our remaining options are starkly limited, and most of the proposals you’ll hear these days are simply variations on the theme of chasing business as usual right over the nearest cliff.

[..] I’d like to suggest, in fact, that at this point in the trajectory of industrial civilization, any proposal that doesn’t make using less energy a central strategy simply isn’t serious. It’s hard to think of any dimension of our predicament that can’t be bettered, often dramatically, by using less energy, and even harder to think of any project that will yield significant gains as long as Americans cling to a lifestyle that history is about to relegate to the compost bin. I’d also like to suggest that any proposal that does start out with using less energy should not be taken seriously until and unless the people proposing it actually do use less energy themselves, preferably by adopting the measures they urge on others.

That’s how effective movements for social change happen, after all. Individuals start them by making changes in their own lives; as the number of people making those changes grows, networks emerge to share information, resources, and encouragement; the networks become the frame of a subculture, and as momentum builds, the subculture becomes a movement.

Prepping for MadMax Collapse: Ten Reasons to Become Self-Sufficient and Ten Ways to Get There...

[MADMAX COLLAPSE]: [Humans: An Endangered Species] :: [Peak Oil, Carrying Capacity & Overshoot] :: [NSSM 200] :: [Tragedy of the Breeding War Commons] :: [Licensed to Breed] :: [Flat Earth Economists: Blood on your Hands] :: [Exponential Eco. & Pop. Growth World Economy Ponzi Scheme] :: PREPPING :: [1] [10 Reasons to Be Self-Sufficient & 10 Ways to Get There] [2] [Protecting Yourself Against Crime and Violence]



Ten Reasons to Become Self-Sufficient and Ten Ways to Get There

Michael Edwards and Jeffrey Green
Activist Post, 20 August 2010

We are now three to five generations removed from the rural backbone that strengthened America. The world at large has undergone a similar transformation as the promise of easier work has created a migration to big cities. These mega-cities could be seen as an experiment gone awry, as general well-being has declined, with suicide rates increasing across the world. Crowded conditions and economic strife have led to rampant crime, pollution, corporate malfeasance, and a dog-eat-dog type of competition that can be described as a temporary insanity.

The economic crisis we are living through has been the final straw for many people, as promises of a better, easier, and more creative life seem to have been sold to us by carnival-style tricksters who are laughing all the way to (their) bank.

Here are the top reasons for becoming self-sufficient; these are based on fundamental, systemic concerns for why undertaking this life change will not be a fly-by-night fad, but rather a long-lasting means for personal independence.

Peak Oil Politics of Creative Destruction? Who is Behind the Revolt Against Gaddafi; and Why?

World cheers as the CIA plunges Libya into chaos

Wednesday, February 23, 2011
David Rothscum Reports

How was Libya doing under the rule of Gadaffi? How bad did the people have it? Were they oppressed as we now commonly accept as fact? Let us look at the facts for a moment.

Before the chaos erupted, Libya had a lower incarceration rate than the Czech republic. It ranked 61st. Libya had the lowest infant mortality rate of all of Africa. Libya had the highest life expectancy of all of Africa. Less than 5% of the population was undernourished. In response to the rising food prices around the world, the government of Libya abolished ALL taxes on food.

People in Libya were rich. Libya had the highest gross domestic product (GDP) at purchasing power parity (PPP) per capita of all of Africa. The government took care to ensure that everyone in the country shared in the wealth. Libya had the highest Human Development Index of any country on the continent. The wealth was distributed equally. In Libya, a lower percentage of people lived below the poverty line than in the Netherlands.

How does Libya get so rich? The answer is oil. The country has a lot of oil, and does not allow foreign corporations to steal the resources while the population starves, unlike countries like Nigeria, a country that is basically run by Shell.

Like any country, Libya suffers from a government with corrupt bureaucrats that try to gain a bigger portion of the pie at the cost of everyone else. In response to this, Kadaffi called for the oil revenue to be distributed directly to the people, because in his opinion, the government was failing the people. However, unlike the article claims, Kadaffi is not the president of Libya. In fact he holds no official position in the government. This is the big mistake that people make. They claim that Kadaffi rules over Libya when in fact he doesn't, his position is more or less ceremonial. He should be compared to a founding father.

Humans: An Endangered Species: [V] A Proposal: How to Determine Who Can and Who Cannot Reproduce

HUMANS: AN ENDANGERED SPECIES

BY JASON G. BRENT

Copyright by Jason G. Brent
Jan. 1, 2008, Jan.1, 2009, and July 17, 2010

1. Introduction
   
2. The Book Begins
   
3. Smart Growth, Dumb Option
   
4. Recycling has its limits
   
5. Space Travel Not the Answer
   
6. The Power of Compound Growth
   
7. Declining Growth Rates Mask a Coming YouthQuake
   
8. The Exploding Growth of the Indian Sub-Continent
   
9. Gambling Our Future on Statistical Projections
   
10. There Isn't any Fix for Perpetual Growth
    
11. At Most the Earth Could Support One Billion on an American Life Style
    
12. Doubling the Economic Output of the Planet Just to Stay Even
    
13. The World Will Not Be Big Enough for Both Resource Hogs -- China and the United States of America
    
14. Humanity Cannot Afford to Gamble on Voluntary Population Control
    
15. Terrorists and the Power of Weapons of Mass Destruction
    
16. Religion -- A Potent Force Against Population Stabilization
    
17. Universal Voluntary Birth Control -- A Pipe Dream Humanity Cannot Afford
    
18. The Delusional Expectations of Technological Solutions
    
19. Environmentalism Fails to Address the Root Cause
    
20. Triage Ethics -- Conventional Morality or Human Survival?
    
21. The Exhaustion of Oil -- A Death Sentence for Billions
    
22. Water Shortages
    
23. Easter Island - A Lesson Which Humanity Must Heed
    
24. Destruction of Productive Land and Destruction of Fisheries
    
25. The Compound Effect of Extended Life Expectancies
    
26. There Cannot be Any Procreative “Rights” in an Overpopulated World
    
27. Shocking Proposals
    
28. A Proposal as to How to Determine Who can and Who Cannot Reproduce
    
29. The Leaders of Humanity by their Inaction Will Kill Billions of Humans

THERE CANNOT BE ANY PROCREATIVE “RIGHTS” IN AN OVERPOPULATED WORLD

Humans: An Endangered Species: [IV] Easter Island Lesson: Peak Resources: A Death Sentence for Billions

HUMANS: AN ENDANGERED SPECIES

BY JASON G. BRENT

Copyright by Jason G. Brent
Jan. 1, 2008, Jan.1, 2009, and July 17, 2010

1. Introduction
   
2. The Book Begins
   
3. Smart Growth, Dumb Option
   
4. Recycling has its limits
   
5. Space Travel Not the Answer
   
6. The Power of Compound Growth
   
7. Declining Growth Rates Mask a Coming YouthQuake
   
8. The Exploding Growth of the Indian Sub-Continent
   
9. Gambling Our Future on Statistical Projections
   
10. There Isn't any Fix for Perpetual Growth
    
11. At Most the Earth Could Support One Billion on an American Life Style
    
12. Doubling the Economic Output of the Planet Just to Stay Even
    
13. The World Will Not Be Big Enough for Both Resource Hogs -- China and the United States of America
    
14. Humanity Cannot Afford to Gamble on Voluntary Population Control
    
15. Terrorists and the Power of Weapons of Mass Destruction
    
16. Religion -- A Potent Force Against Population Stabilization
    
17. Universal Voluntary Birth Control -- A Pipe Dream Humanity Cannot Afford
    
18. The Delusional Expectations of Technological Solutions
    
19. Environmentalism Fails to Address the Root Cause
    
20. Triage Ethics -- Conventional Morality or Human Survival?
    
21. The Exhaustion of Oil -- A Death Sentence for Billions
    
22. Water Shortages
    
23. Easter Island - A Lesson Which Humanity Must Heed
    
24. Destruction of Productive Land and Destruction of Fisheries
    
25. The Compound Effect of Extended Life Expectancies
    
26. There Cannot be Any Procreative “Rights” in an Overpopulated World
    
27. Shocking Proposals
    
28. A Proposal as to How to Determine Who can and Who Cannot Reproduce
    
29. The Leaders of Humanity by their Inaction Will Kill Billions of Humans

THE EXHAUSTON OF OIL—A DEATH SENTENCE FOR BILLIONS

Humans: An Endangered Species: [III] Triage Ethics -- Conventional Morality or Human Survival?

HUMANS: AN ENDANGERED SPECIES

BY JASON G. BRENT

Copyright by Jason G. Brent
Jan. 1, 2008, Jan.1, 2009, and July 17, 2010

1. Introduction
   
2. The Book Begins
   
3. Smart Growth, Dumb Option
   
4. Recycling has its limits
   
5. Space Travel Not the Answer
   
6. The Power of Compound Growth
   
7. Declining Growth Rates Mask a Coming YouthQuake
   
8. The Exploding Growth of the Indian Sub-Continent
   
9. Gambling Our Future on Statistical Projections
   
10. There Isn't any Fix for Perpetual Growth
    
11. At Most the Earth Could Support One Billion on an American Life Style
    
12. Doubling the Economic Output of the Planet Just to Stay Even
    
13. The World Will Not Be Big Enough for Both Resource Hogs -- China and the United States of America
    
14. Humanity Cannot Afford to Gamble on Voluntary Population Control
    
15. Terrorists and the Power of Weapons of Mass Destruction
    
16. Religion -- A Potent Force Against Population Stabilization
    
17. Universal Voluntary Birth Control -- A Pipe Dream Humanity Cannot Afford
    
18. The Delusional Expectations of Technological Solutions
    
19. Environmentalism Fails to Address the Root Cause
    
20. Triage Ethics -- Conventional Morality or Human Survival?
    
21. The Exhaustion of Oil -- A Death Sentence for Billions
    
22. Water Shortages
    
23. Easter Island - A Lesson Which Humanity Must Heed
    
24. Destruction of Productive Land and Destruction of Fisheries
    
25. The Compound Effect of Extended Life Expectancies
    
26. There Cannot be Any Procreative “Rights” in an Overpopulated World
    
27. Shocking Proposals
    
28. A Proposal as to How to Determine Who can and Who Cannot Reproduce
    
29. The Leaders of Humanity by their Inaction Will Kill Billions of Humans

RELIGION---A POTENT FORCE AGAINST POPULATION STABILIZATION

‘Gaddafi: my brother leader; one of the revolutionary icons of our times’ - Nelson Mandela

[WARNING: GRAPHIC CONTENT: NOT FOR SENSITIVE VIEWERS]

By Their Friends, Shall Ye Know Them

21 February 2011
ILuvSA

Gaddafi Gives Anc Millions: Report

[30 May 1999, Sapa] Libyan President Muammar Gaddafi has donated millions of pounds to a "secret election campaign fund" run by President Nelson Mandela to allow the African National Congress to win the June 2 election, the British Sunday Telegraph reported on Sunday.

According to SABC radio news reports, figures compiled by Greg Mills of the South African Institute for International Affairs revealed that the ANC had received more than 112 million pounds in overseas funding from what Mills said was "questionable sources".

ANC spokesman Smuts Ngonyama dismissed the Telegraph report as a "smear campaign" against the ANC and "whoever is making the claims... has got a sinister motive".

The ANC could not say whether it had received money from Gaddafi or not, but there was nothing wrong if it had. "Like all other political parties, the ANC receives donations," Ngonyama said.

Parties such as the Democratic Party and the United Democratic Movement received funds from "countries such as the United States, but no-one has ever queried this", he said.

The Sunday Telegraph report was a "continuation of the British media trying to choose friends for the ANC", Smuts said.


Excerpt from a Mandela speech.

Libya: Benghazi Protestors shot by Gaddafi's Snipers & Mercenaries

“It was pure expediency to call on democratic South Africa to turn its back on Libya and Qaddafi, who had assisted us in obtaining democracy at a time when those who now made that call were the friends of the enemies of democracy in South Africa.

Had we heeded those demands, we would have betrayed the very values and attitudes that allowed us as a nation to have adversaries sitting down and negotiating in a spirit of compromise. It would have meant denying that the South African experience could be a model and example for international behaviour.

In many ways, our modest contribution to resolving the Lockerbie issue will remain a highlight of the international aspects of our Presidency. No one can deny that the friendship and trust between South Africa and Libya played a significant part in arriving at this solution. If that be so, it vindicates our view that talking to one another and searching for peaceful solutions remain the surest way to resolve differences and advance peace and progress in the world.

We look forward with joy and anticipation to the full re-entry of Libya into the affairs of our continent and the world.