MOELETSI MBEKI: Wealth creation
Only a matter of time before the hand grenade explodes
Business Day
Published: 2011/02/10 07:01:41 AM
I can predict when South Africa’s “Tunisia Day” will arrive. Tunisia Day is when the masses rise against the powers that be, as happened recently in Tunisia. The year will be 2020, give or take a couple of years.
The year 2020 is when China estimates that its minerals-intensive industrialisation phase will be concluded.
For South Africa, this will mean the ANC government will have to cut back on social grants, which it uses to placate the black poor and to get their votes. China’s industrialisation phase has forced up the prices of South Africa’s minerals, which has enabled the government to finance social welfare programmes.
The ANC inherited a flawed, complex society it barely understood; its tinkerings with it are turning it into an explosive cocktail.
Former British prime minister Margaret Thatcher once commented that whoever thought that the ANC could rule South Africa was living in cloud-cuckoo-land.
Why was she right? In 16 years of ANC rule, all the symptoms of a government out of its depth have grown worse:
- Life expectancy has slid from 65 to 53 since the ANC came to power.
- In 2007, South Africa became a net food importer for the first time.
- The elimination of agricultural subsidies led to a loss of 600 000 farmworkers’ jobs and the eviction from commercial farming of 2.4 million people between 1997 and 2007.
- The ANC stopped controlling the borders, leading to a flood of poor people into South Africa.
What should the ANC have done? When they took control of the government in 1994, ANC leaders should have identified South Africa’s strengths and weaknesses and decided how to use the strengths to minimise or rectify the weaknesses.
A wise government would have persuaded the skilled white and Indian population to devote some time – even an hour a week – to train blacks and coloureds.